A recent report by Juniper Research has added more fuel to the wearable technology fire, noting that the next few years could bring lots of growth to the new industry. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) has essentially already entered the market with Glass, as has Samsung with the Galaxy Gear, and many expect Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) to enter the space next year. With big players already entering the market, the question isn't whether tech companies will pursue wearables, but rather which ones are in the best position to benefit.
The next four years could be huge
The report from Juniper says that by 2018 the smart wearable device industry will have retail revenues of $19 billion -- compared to just $1.4 billion this year. That massive growth is expected to come from the high price points of wearable devices and strong demand from users.
As far as pricing goes, Samsung is selling its Galaxy Gear smart watch starting at $299. Back in August, an analyst at CIMB Securities said that he expects Apple to launch its rumored iWatch in the second half of 2014, and ship as many as 63.4 million in the first year at the price of $199. Google is currently selling its Glass device mainly to developers for $1,500, but that price will likely be significantly lower when it hits the mass market. An analyst at IHS recently told The New York Times that the price will be around the same as a tablet or smartphone.
Right now, Samsung's Galaxy Gear is the one of the only real measuring sticks we have for what a smart wearable device should be priced at. If Apple releases a smart watch next year, investors and consumers will have a better idea of how the pricing structure will be set up. But for now, Samsung has set the pace.
Betting on the biggest payoff
Though Google and Samsung may be the first movers in wearable, the more important question for investors is who is going to make the biggest gains in this new industry.
Google Glass has received a lot of attention, but I have my doubts the device will be received warmly by the consumer market. Aside from breaking many social norms -- for example, the feeling that you're being constantly recorded by Glass -- glasses are much more intrusive into everyday life than a wristwatch, and some people simply don't like wearing glasses. Because of these social and practical hurdles, I think Apple has an advantage in the space. Samsung can't be counted out, but reviews of the product have been less than stellar.
Over the past three months, Apple has hired two fashion CEOs: The first was Paul Deneve from Yves-Saint Laurent, and just this week Angela Ahrendts from Burberry. Deneve became a vice president in charge of "special projects" at Apple while Ahrendts will take over the company's retail and online stores. Hiring the two doesn't necessarily prove Apple is working on a smart watch, but if Apple were making a watch it would make sense to hire people familiar with fashion retail. Apple isn't quick to jump into new device segments, but when it does, it seeks to dominate them. Hiring Deneve and Ahrendts could easily be a part of that domination strategy. If the company brings a smart watch to market, it's likely to follow the same path other Apple devices take and be marketed to everyone, not just a niche group. This would entail making a device that feels like a fashion accessory and not just a computer on a wrist. Apple's latest hires may prove to be just more speculation for a possible iWatch, but I think it's more likely they hint at a whole new industry -- and a new mobile future for Apple.
Peeking through Apple's looking glass
Apple doesn't like to give away its secrets, but peeking into the mind of companies is exactly what investors need to do in order to make the right decisions. That's why The Motley Fool created "5 Secrets to Apple's Future," a free report to help you understand what Apple's doing. This 100% free guide includes actionable advice that you can put to use right now. Just click here now for instant access.
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Elaine Thompson/APJames Lott outside the Walmart store where he works as a pharmacist in Bonney Lake, Wash. Lott, who lives in suburban Seattle, adds to his six-figure job salary by day-trading stocks. WASHINGTON -- Fully 20 percent of U.S. adults become rich for parts of their lives, wielding extensive influence over America's economy and politics, according to new survey data. These "new rich," made up largely of older professionals, working married couples and more educated singles, are becoming politically influential, and economists say their capacity to spend is key to the U.S. economic recovery. But their rise is also a sign of the nation's continuing economic polarization. They extend well beyond the wealthiest 1 percent, a traditional group of super-rich millionaires and billionaires with long-held family assets. The new rich have household income of $250,000 or more at some point during their working lives, putting them -- if sometimes temporarily -- in the top 2 percent of earners. The new survey data on the affluent are being published in an upcoming book, and an analysis by The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research provided additional information on the views of the group. In a country where poverty is at a record high, today's new rich are notable for their sense of economic fragility. They rely on income from their work to maintain their social position and pay for things such as private tutoring for their children. That makes them much more fiscally conservative than other Americans, polling suggests, and less likely to support public programs, such as food stamps or early public education, to help the disadvantaged. Last week, President Barack Obama asserted that growing inequality is "the defining challenge of our time," signaling that it will be a major theme for Democrats in next year's elections. "In this country, you don't get anywhere without working hard," said James Lott, 28, a pharmacist in Renton, Wash., who adds to his six-figure salary by day-trading stocks. The son of Nigerian immigrants, Lott says he was able to get ahead by earning an advanced pharmacy degree. He makes nearly $200,000 a year. After growing up on food stamps, Lott now splurges occasionally on nicer restaurants, Hugo Boss shoes and extended vacations to New Orleans, Atlanta and parts of Latin America. He believes government should play a role in helping the disadvantaged. But he says the poor should be encouraged to support themselves, explaining that his single mother rose out of hardship by starting a day-care business in their home. The new research suggests that affluent Americans are more numerous than government data depict, encompassing 21 percent of working-age adults for at least a year by the time they turn 60. That proportion has more than doubled since 1979. 
Even outside periods of unusual wealth, members of this group generally hover in the $100,000-plus income range, keeping them in the top 20 percent of earners. At the same time, an increasing polarization of low-wage work and high-skill jobs has left middle-income careers depleted. "For many in this group, the American dream is not dead. They have reached affluence for parts of their lives and see it as very attainable, even if the dream has become more elusive for everyone else," says Mark Rank, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis, who calculated numbers on the affluent for a forthcoming book, "Chasing the American Dream," to be published by the Oxford University Press. As the fastest-growing group based on take-home pay, the new rich tend to enjoy better schools, employment and gated communities, making it easier to pass on their privilege to their children. Because their rising status comes at a time when upward mobility in the U.S. ranks lowest among wealthy industrialized counties, the spending attitudes of the new rich have implications for politics and policy. It's now become even harder for people at the bottom to move up. The group is more liberal than lower-income groups on issues such as abortion and gay marriage, according to an analysis of General Social Survey data by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. But when it comes to money, their views aren't so open. They're wary of any government role in closing the income gap. In Gallup polling in October, 60 percent of people making $90,000 or more said average Americans already had "plenty of opportunity" to get ahead. Among those making less than $48,000, the share was 48 percent Big Spenders Sometimes referred to by marketers as the "mass affluent," the new rich make up roughly 25 million U.S. households and account for nearly 40 percent of total U.S. consumer spending. While paychecks shrank for most Americans after the 2007-2009 recession, theirs held steady or edged higher. In 2012, the top 20 percent of U.S. households took home a record 51 percent of the nation's income. The median income of this group is more than $150,000. Once concentrated in the old-money enclaves of the Northeast, the new rich are now spread across the U.S., mostly in bigger cities and their suburbs. They include Washington, D.C.; Boston, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Seattle. By race, whites are three times more likely to reach affluence than nonwhites. Paul F. Nunes, managing director at Accenture's Institute for High Performance and Research, calls this group "the new power brokers of consumption." Because they spend just 60 percent of their before-tax income, often setting the rest aside for retirement or investing, he says their capacity to spend more will be important to a U.S. economic recovery. In Miami, developers are betting on a growing luxury market, building higher-end malls featuring Cartier, Armani and Louis Vuitton and hoping to expand on South Florida's Bal Harbour, a favored hideaway of the rich. "It's not that I don't have money. It's more like I don't have time," said Deborah Sponder, 57, walking her dog Ava recently along Miami's blossoming Design District. She was headed to one of her two art galleries -- this one between the Emilio Pucci and Cartier stores and close to the Louis Vuitton and Hermes storefronts. But Sponder says she doesn't consider her income of $250,000 as upper class, noting that she is paying college tuition for her three children. "Between rent, schooling and everything -- it comes in and goes out." The new rich's influence will only grow as middle-class families below them struggle. The Federal Reserve said Monday that the nation's wealth rose 2.6 percent from July through September to $77.3 trillion, a record high, boosted in part by a surging stock market. But the gains haven't been equally distributed; the wealthiest 10 percent of U.S. households own about 80 percent of stocks. New Realities Both Democrats and Republicans are awakening to the political realities presented by this new demographic bubble. Traditionally Republican, the group makes up more than 1 in 4 voters and is now more politically divided, better educated and less white and male than in the past, according to Election Day exit polls dating to the 1970s. Sixty-nine percent of upper-income voters backed Republican Ronald Reagan and his supply-side economics of tax cuts in 1984. By 2008, Democrat Barack Obama had split their vote evenly, 49-49. In 2012, Obama lost the group, with 54 percent backing Republican Mitt Romney. "For the Democrats' part, traditional economic populism is poorly suited for affluent professionals," says Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University professor who specializes in political polarization. The new rich includes Robert Kane, 39, of Colorado Springs, Colo. A former stockbroker who once owned three houses and voted steadfastly Republican, Kane says he was humbled after the 2008 financial meltdown, which he says exposed Wall Street's excesses. Now a senior vice president for a private equity firm specializing in the marijuana business, Kane says he's concerned about upward mobility for the poor and calls wealthy politicians such as Romney "out of touch." But Kane, now a registered independent, draws the line when it comes to higher taxes. "A dollar is best in your hand rather than the government's," he says. -.
NEW YORK (Money Magazine) After five frustrating years, the economy is ready to bust out. Stocks already had a banner run in anticipation of the rebound, housing is scorching, and jobs won't be far behind. 
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